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禽蛋孵化過程組合預(yù)測研究
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國家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(11147187)和中南林業(yè)科技大學(xué)引進(jìn)人才資助項(xiàng)目(104-0219)


Combination Prediction of Incubator for Eggs
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    摘要:

    針對孵化過程是一個(gè)具有高度非線性、大滯后、時(shí)變特性且強(qiáng)耦合性的農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)過程,提出了一種基于灰色預(yù)測和聯(lián)想記憶神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的組合預(yù)測方法。該模型首先利用灰色預(yù)測模型和聯(lián)想記憶神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)分別對焦?fàn)t禽蛋孵化過程溫、濕度進(jìn)行預(yù)測,然后采用方差-協(xié)方差優(yōu)選組合預(yù)測法對2種單一模型的預(yù)測結(jié)果進(jìn)行加權(quán)集成,以獲得較為準(zhǔn)確的預(yù)測精度,實(shí)現(xiàn)孵化過程溫度和濕度的有效預(yù)測。運(yùn)行結(jié)果表明,組合預(yù)測模型均方根相對偏差為0.9%。

    Abstract:

    In view of the incubation process which is highly nonlinear, large delay and time-varying and strong coupling, a combination forecasting method based on gray prediction and associative memory neural networks was proposed. Firstly, the gray prediction model and associative memory neural networks were respectively used on prediction for incubator. Then the two sub-models with weighted integration by using the variance covariance combination forecasting method was combined. The value of the temperature and humidity of incubator could be more accurate and effective. Finally, the results showed the mean square deviation of combination forecasting model was 0.9%.

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周國雄,吳舒辭.禽蛋孵化過程組合預(yù)測研究[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械學(xué)報(bào),2012,43(12):211-216. Zhou Guoxiong, Wu Shuci. Combination Prediction of Incubator for Eggs[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2012,43(12):211-216.

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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2012-12-13
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