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基于Morris和EFAST的CERES-Wheat模型敏感性分析
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國家高技術(shù)研究發(fā)展計劃(863計劃)資助項目(2013AA102904)和高等學校學科創(chuàng)新引智計劃(111計劃)資助項目(B12007)


Global Sensitivity Analyses of DSSAT-CERES-Wheat Model Using Morris and EFAST Methods
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    依據(jù)在陜西楊凌獲得的冬小麥試驗資料,用Morris法和EFAST(extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test)法分析了CERESWheat模型輸出變量中小麥開花期、成熟期、產(chǎn)量、地上生物量對品種和生長參數(shù)的敏感性,并分析比較了兩種方法的一致性。結(jié)果表明,光周期影響因子(P1D)、出苗穗分化期積溫(P1)、穗分化挑旗期積溫(P2)和春化影響因子(VEFF)均對開花期和成熟期較敏感,灌漿期積溫(P5)對成熟期有較大影響;挑旗前、后的光能利用率(PARUE,PARU2)、P1D、P1和P2均對產(chǎn)量和生物量有較大影響;最適條件下標準籽粒質(zhì)量(G2)和開花期單位地上生物量的籽粒數(shù)(G1)對冬小麥產(chǎn)量有較大影響,第一標準葉的比葉面積(SLAS)對地上生物量有較大影響。Morris法和EFAST法得到的參數(shù)敏感性結(jié)果具有較高的相關(guān)性,表明計算工作量較小的Morris法較適于篩選模型敏感參數(shù)。

    Abstract:

    Parameter sensitivity analysis is crucial to the process of model localization. In this study, both the Morris and EFAST (extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test) methods were applied to test the sensitivities of outputs of CERESWheat model to its cultivar and ecotype parameters. The wheat crop planted during 2007—2010 was simulated under the potential, attainable and actual yield level at Yangling, Shaanxi Province. CERESWheat outputs of interest included anthesis date, maturity date, yield and above-ground biomass. The results showed that the anthesis and maturity dates were highly influenced by photoperiod response (P1D), accumulated temperature in the duration of emergence stage to terminal spike differentiation stage (P1), accumulated temperature in the duration of terminal spike differentiation stage to flag leaf stage (P2), and vernalization effect (VEFF). Moreover, maturity date was sensitive to grain filling phase duration (P5). Yield and above-ground biomass were highly influenced by PAR before and after flag leaf stage (PARUE, PARU2), P1D, P1 and P2. Moreover, biomass was sensitive to standard kernel size (G2) and kernel number per unit canopy weight at anthesis (G1). The correlation coefficient between the Morris mean and the EFAST total sensitivity index was high, indicating that the Morris method with less computation could be used to select the sensitive model parameters.

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宋明丹,馮浩,李正鵬,高建恩.基于Morris和EFAST的CERES-Wheat模型敏感性分析[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機械學報,2014,45(10):124-131,166. Song Mingdan, Feng Hao, Li Zhengpeng, Gao Jianen. Global Sensitivity Analyses of DSSAT-CERES-Wheat Model Using Morris and EFAST Methods[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2014,45(10):124-131,166.

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  • 收稿日期:2014-02-21
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2014-10-10
  • 出版日期: 2014-10-10