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內(nèi)蒙古河套灌區(qū)節(jié)水工程改造效果分析與評估
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國家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(51069006)和內(nèi)蒙古自治區(qū)水利廳資助項(xiàng)目(NMSH2012—01)


Analysis and Assessment of Water-saving Project of Hetao Irrigation District in Inner Mongolia
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    摘要:

    以內(nèi)蒙古河套灌區(qū)1982—2012年長系列農(nóng)業(yè)凈引水量和年降水量資料為基礎(chǔ),運(yùn)用均值分析、方差分析、相關(guān)分析、時(shí)間序列分析和生存分析等數(shù)理統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)方法,并結(jié)合內(nèi)蒙古河套灌區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)種植發(fā)展進(jìn)程,分析了河套灌區(qū)多年農(nóng)業(yè)凈引水量變化趨勢與影響因素,得出年降水量(超過211.76mm時(shí),即豐水年)和節(jié)水工程改造分別獨(dú)立地與農(nóng)業(yè)凈引水量呈明顯負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系的結(jié)論。運(yùn)用時(shí)間序列法預(yù)測了2013、2014和2015年河套灌區(qū)的農(nóng)業(yè)凈引水量分別為44.5、44.18和43.86億m3;同時(shí)運(yùn)用生存分析法預(yù)測了在灌區(qū)現(xiàn)有節(jié)水改造規(guī)模條件下,河套灌區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)凈引水量區(qū)間為35~55億m3,平均為45億m3。

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    The net water diversion of agriculture in Hetao Irrigation District was studied. Based on the data during 1982 to 2012 in Hetao Irrigation District, the characteristics of the net water diversion variability in 31 years were analyzed by using several statistic methods, such as ANOM, ANOVA, correlation analysis, time series analysis and survival analysis. In addition, the impact of annual precipitations and water-saving engineering projects was analyzed by the progress of Hetao Irrigation District developmental history. The forecasted net water diversion in Hetao Irrigation District would be about 44.5×10.8m3 in 2013, 44.18×108m3 in 2014 and 43.86×108m3 in 2015 by the time series analysis method. In current water-saving engineering project, the forecasted net water diversion would be from 35×108m3 to 55×108m3 by the survival analysis method. The net water diversion was influenced sharply by annual precipitation (more than 211.76mm, namely wet years) and water-saving engineering project. These two factors had a negative correlation with the net water diversion. Finally, the relationship between net water diversion and total investment of water-saving engineering project was discussed. The results provided an important foundation for the management of sustainable development in Hetao Irrigation District.

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屈忠義,楊曉,黃永江.內(nèi)蒙古河套灌區(qū)節(jié)水工程改造效果分析與評估[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械學(xué)報(bào),2015,46(4):70-76,112. Qu Zhongyi, Yang Xiao, Huang Yongjiang. Analysis and Assessment of Water-saving Project of Hetao Irrigation District in Inner Mongolia[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2015,46(4):70-76,112.

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  • 收稿日期:2014-04-30
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2015-04-10
  • 出版日期: 2015-04-10
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