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基于天氣預(yù)報的參照作物騰發(fā)量中短期預(yù)報模型研究
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“十二五”國家科技支撐計劃項目資助(2011BAD29B01)、公益性行業(yè)(農(nóng)業(yè))科研專項資助項目(201203077)和現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)技術(shù)體系建設(shè)專項資金資助項目(CARS—3—1—30)


Middle and Short Term Forecasting Models for Reference Evapotranspiration Based on Daily Weather Forecast
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    摘要:

    以新鄉(xiāng)市1970—2011年逐日實測氣象資料代入FAO 56 Penman—Monteith(PM)方法算得的ET0作為基準(zhǔn)值,對HG、P—T、M—K、M—C模型進行參數(shù)修正,將新鄉(xiāng)市2012—2014年冬小麥生育期間預(yù)見期為1、3、5、7、10d的天氣預(yù)報數(shù)據(jù)代入修正后的模型進行ET01~10d的中短期預(yù)報,并以2012—2014年冬小麥生育期間逐日實測氣象資料由PM公式算得的ET0為基準(zhǔn)值,對天氣預(yù)報的精度及ET0的預(yù)報精度進行評價。結(jié)果表明:經(jīng)過參數(shù)修正后HG、P—T、M—K、M—C模型的精度均有提高;最高氣溫、最低氣溫、風(fēng)速、日照時數(shù)的預(yù)報精度均隨預(yù)見期的增加呈逐漸下降趨勢,最低氣溫預(yù)報的精度稍高于最高氣溫;不同預(yù)見期的ET0預(yù)報模型中,P—T模型預(yù)報的ET0平均準(zhǔn)確率在眾模型中較高(95.06%),其次為HG—M模型(94.66%)、PMT1模型(94.34%)、M—K模型(93.89%),且P—T、HG—M兩種模型計算程序較簡單,因此優(yōu)選P—T、HG—M模型進行ET0的中短期預(yù)報。

    Abstract:

    The Hargreaves (HG)equation, McClound (M—C) equation, Makkink (M—K) equation and Priestley—Taylor (P—T) equation were amended against the FAO 56 Penman—Monteith(PM)by using the observed meteorological data from 1970 to 2011 at Xinxiang City. Then, the calibrated equation and weather forecast data were used to predict the 10d ET0. The precision of weather forecast and forecast ET0 was evaluated, and an analytical method was developed to translate daily weather forecast message into the variables needed by estimation ET0. The results showed that the mean accuracy of calibration HG (HG—M) equation, P—T equation, M—C equation and M—K equation were relatively higher. However, the maximum and minimum air temperature, wind speed, hours of sunshine tended to decline with the increasing forecast horizon; the accuracy of minimum air temperature forecast was higher than that of the maximum air temperature. The mean accuracy of P—T model was the highest (95.06%) among all models, meanwhile, the HG—M equation, M—K model, PMT1 model were in turn. The prediction accuracy of selected four models were higher than other models, but the P—T and HG—M models could satisfy the requirement of higher accuracy and simplify the calculating procedure. So for ET0 middle and short term forecast, the P—T and HG—M models could make a great contribution to improve the accuracy of irrigation forecast.

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張倩,段愛旺,王廣帥,Jha K. Shiva,申孝軍,蔡煥杰.基于天氣預(yù)報的參照作物騰發(fā)量中短期預(yù)報模型研究[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機械學(xué)報,2015,46(5):107-114. Zhang Qian, Duan Aiwang, Wang Guangshuai, Jha K. Shiva, Shen Xiaojun, Cai Huanjie. Middle and Short Term Forecasting Models for Reference Evapotranspiration Based on Daily Weather Forecast[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2015,46(5):107-114.

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  • 收稿日期:2015-03-07
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2015-05-10
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