亚洲一区欧美在线,日韩欧美视频免费观看,色戒的三场床戏分别是在几段,欧美日韩国产在线人成

基于ELM模型的淺層地下水位埋深時(shí)空分布預(yù)測(cè)
CSTR:
作者:
作者單位:

作者簡(jiǎn)介:

通訊作者:

中圖分類號(hào):

基金項(xiàng)目:

中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院“華北節(jié)水保糧協(xié)同創(chuàng)新行動(dòng)”項(xiàng)目(CAAS-XTCX2016019)、 國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(51379024)、中央高?;究蒲袠I(yè)務(wù)費(fèi)項(xiàng)目(51679243)和“十二五”國(guó)家科技支撐計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2012BAD09B01、2015BAD24B01)


Temporal and Spatial Distribution Prediction of Shallow Groundwater Level Based on ELM Model
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 圖/表
  • |
  • 訪問(wèn)統(tǒng)計(jì)
  • |
  • 參考文獻(xiàn)
  • |
  • 相似文獻(xiàn)
  • |
  • 引證文獻(xiàn)
  • |
  • 資源附件
  • |
  • 文章評(píng)論
    摘要:

    選用石家莊平原區(qū)補(bǔ)排因子的多種組合為輸入?yún)?shù),利用28眼水井的實(shí)測(cè)資料作為預(yù)測(cè)目標(biāo)值,首次建立基于極限學(xué)習(xí)機(jī)(Extreme learning machine,ELM)的地下水位埋深時(shí)空分布預(yù)測(cè)模型,討論補(bǔ)排因子在不同缺失情況下對(duì)模型精度的影響;利用ArcGIS分析誤差空間分布趨勢(shì),并與常用的三隱層BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型進(jìn)行對(duì)比。結(jié)果表明:基于水均衡理論的ELM地下水位埋深模擬模型能夠準(zhǔn)確反映人類和自然雙重影響下地下水系統(tǒng)的非線性關(guān)系,模型輸入因子中缺失降水量或開(kāi)采量的模擬結(jié)果均方根誤差(RMSE)比缺失其余因子的RMSE高200倍及以上,同時(shí)模型有效系數(shù)(Ens)和決定系數(shù)(R2)進(jìn)一步降低;與BP模型相比,ELM模型可使RMSE減小43.6%,誤差區(qū)間降低46.4%,Ens和R2提高至0.99,且RMSE在空間相同區(qū)域上均明顯呈現(xiàn)出ELM模型小于BP模型;ELM模型在南部高誤差區(qū)的移植精度(RMSE低于1.82m/a,Ens高于0.95)高于BP模型(RMSE超過(guò)3.00m/a,Ens低于0.85);因此,影響地下水位埋深的主導(dǎo)因素是降水量和開(kāi)采量,且ELM模型在精度、穩(wěn)定性和空間均勻性上較優(yōu),移植預(yù)測(cè)效果較好,可利用已知資料推求區(qū)域空間內(nèi)其余未知水井的淺層地下水位埋深;該模型可作為水文地質(zhì)參數(shù)及補(bǔ)排資料缺乏條件下淺層地下水位埋深預(yù)測(cè)的推薦模型。

    Abstract:

    In order to achieve high-precision prediction of temporal and spatial distribution of the groundwater level in shallow groundwater cones region, a model was constructed firstly based on extreme learning machine (ELM). By choosing different combination factors of groundwater recharge and discharge as the input parameters of model and observing data of 28 wells as predicted target in Shijiazhuang plain, the error of spatial distribution trend was analyzed by using ArcGIS software. The results showed that the ELM model based on the water balance theory could accurately reflect the non-linear relationship of groundwater system under the influence of human and nature activity. The root mean square error (RMSE) of model under the condition without exploitation or precipitation as input factor was two times higher than that under the condition without other factors, and the coefficient of efficiency (Ens) and coefficient of determination (R2) were further reduced. Compared with the BP model, the RMSE of ELM model was reduced by 43.6%, and the scope of error was reduced by 46.4%. Ens and R2 were improved to 0.99. The tendency of error distribution showed that it was decreased from the south and southeast to the central. The RMSE of ELM model was obviously lower than that of BP model in all the regions. The accuracy of ELM model (RMSE was less than 1.82m, Ens was higher than 0.95) was higher than that of BP model (RMSE was more than 3.00m, Ens was less than 0.85) in southern high error region. Therefore, exploitation and precipitation were the main impact factors on the groundwater dynamic in the model. Meanwhile, the stability, accuracy and space uniformity of ELM model were better than those of BP model. And the transplantation results of ELM model were more satisfactory. The model could be used to forecast groundwater level of other unknown wells based on given data. Therefore, the ELM model could be used as a recommended model for predicting groundwater level under conditions of missing hydrogeological and groundwater recharge data.

    參考文獻(xiàn)
    相似文獻(xiàn)
    引證文獻(xiàn)
引用本文

喻黎明,嚴(yán)為光,龔道枝,李沅媛,馮禹,姜丹曦.基于ELM模型的淺層地下水位埋深時(shí)空分布預(yù)測(cè)[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械學(xué)報(bào),2017,48(2):215-223. YU Liming, YAN Weiguang, GONG Daozhi, LI Yuanyuan, FENG Yu,JIANG Danxi. Temporal and Spatial Distribution Prediction of Shallow Groundwater Level Based on ELM Model[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2017,48(2):215-223.

復(fù)制
分享
文章指標(biāo)
  • 點(diǎn)擊次數(shù):
  • 下載次數(shù):
  • HTML閱讀次數(shù):
  • 引用次數(shù):
歷史
  • 收稿日期:2016-10-24
  • 最后修改日期:2017-02-10
  • 錄用日期:
  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2017-02-10
  • 出版日期:
文章二維碼