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基于博弈論賦權(quán)的灌溉用水效率GRA—TOPSIS評價模型
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國家自然科學基金項目(51579044、41071053、51479032)、哈爾濱市創(chuàng)新人才研究專項資金(優(yōu)秀學科帶頭人)項目(2013RFXXJ001)和黑龍江省水利科技項目(201319、201501、201503)


Evaluation Model of Irrigation Water Use Efficiency Based on Game Theory and GRA—TOPSIS
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    在構(gòu)建區(qū)域灌溉用水效率綜合評價指標體系的基礎上,運用博弈論(Game theory,GT)思想將層次分析法(Analytic hierarchy process,AHP)所得主觀權(quán)重與改進熵值法(Improved entropy value method,IEVM)所得客觀權(quán)重進行綜合集成以獲取組合權(quán)值,并將灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析(Gray relation analysis,GRA)與逼近理想解排序(Technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution,TOPSIS)相結(jié)合,以三江平原10個大型灌區(qū)為例進行驗證,對區(qū)域灌溉用水效率作綜合評價。采用Spearman等級相關(guān)系數(shù)檢驗灌溉水有效利用系數(shù)排序與GRA—TOPSIS法排序,得到的相關(guān)系數(shù)高達0.863,且GRA—TOPSIS法、GRA法、TOPSIS法對同一灌區(qū)綜合排序的位次相差均不超過2,表明評價結(jié)果具有合理性和一致性;GRA—TOPSIS法所得綜合值的極差為0.343,變異系數(shù)為0.267,均高于單獨使用GRA法或TOPSIS法的極差與變異系數(shù),更有利于對灌區(qū)灌溉用水效率進行辨識分區(qū)。此外,根據(jù)目標層與準則層排序差異度將灌區(qū)分為3類,辨識各灌區(qū)灌溉用水效率主控因子,對區(qū)域灌溉用水效率發(fā)展策略的制定具有參考價值。

    Abstract:

    An objective and comprehensive indicator system was established to evaluate the irrigation water use efficiency of irrigation districts. The subjective weights estimated by analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the objective weights figured out by improved entropy value method (IEVM) were integrated through using the idea of game theory (GT) to gain a set of final indicator weights.The gray relation analysis (GRA) and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) model were combined to assess regional irrigation water use efficiency with combinational weights.Totally ten large-scale irrigation districts in Sanjiang Plain were chosen as the case study to validate this model and index system, and the evaluation results of the proposed GRA—TOPSIS method were compared with those of GRA and TOPSIS. The water use efficiencies of these irrigation districts were evaluated and ranked by the three methods, respectively.The results showed that the Spearman’s rank coefficients between the results of GRA—TOPSIS and those of GRA and TOPSIS were 0.952 and 0.927, respectively, which illustrated that the results of GRA—TOPSIS were consistent with those of GRA or TOPSIS.The correlation coefficients between the effective irrigation water utilization coefficient and the results based on the GRA—TOPSIS method, GRA and TOPSIS were 0.863, 0.742 and 0.736, respectively, implying that the GRA—TOPSIS was superior to GRA and TOPSIS.In addition, the range of comprehensive value obtained by GRA—TOPSIS model was 0.343 with variation coefficient of 0.267, which were all above the ranges and variation coefficients of GRA or TOPSIS methods, revealing a higher resolution ratio and evenness of GRA—TOPSIS model over those of the other two models.Therefore, the GRA—TOPSIS can efficiently assess the irrigation water use efficiency and lead to great convenience to the practice of water resources management.Meanwhile, the indexes of the criterion layer constituted by water-use index, engineering conditions and management level, were evaluated with GRA—TOPSIS.According to the degrees of variation between the ranks of criterion layer and the ranks of target layer, these irrigation districts can be divided into three categories so as to find out the main factors affecting each irrigation district.Wutonghe, Xingkaihu and Jiangchuan irrigation districts were in Ⅰ category, which should make all-round effort to build up the irrigation districts. Yintang, Yuelai, Jidong, Xingfu and Hamatong irrigation districts were in Ⅱ category, which should take advantage of the ranks of indicator layer to make further development strategy.Wokenhe and Longtouqiao irrigation districts were in Ⅲ category, which should make a great improvement in one aspect of criterion layer.In conclusion, the research provided references for evaluating regional irrigation water use efficiency and formulating development strategy for irrigation districts.

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劉東,龔方華,付強,FAIZ M Abrar,李天霄,崔嵩.基于博弈論賦權(quán)的灌溉用水效率GRA—TOPSIS評價模型[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機械學報,2017,48(5):218-226. LIU Dong, GONG Fanghua, FU Qiang, FAIZ M Abrar, LI Tianxiao, CUI Song. Evaluation Model of Irrigation Water Use Efficiency Based on Game Theory and GRA—TOPSIS[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2017,48(5):218-226.

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  • 收稿日期:2016-09-20
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2017-05-10
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