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基于EnKF-3DVar模型的海淀區(qū)地表溫度模擬
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國(guó)家林業(yè)局基礎(chǔ)性、支撐性和應(yīng)急性重點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目(CAFYBB2017ZA007-3)和“十二五”國(guó)家科技支撐計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2012BAD16B00)


Simulation of Land Surface Temperature in Haidian District Based on EnKF-3DVar Model
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    摘要:

    以城市化程度較深的北京市海淀區(qū)為研究區(qū),基于2005年、2010年和2015年的遙感影像數(shù)據(jù),利用基于影像(IB)的算法反演城市地表溫度空間分布。將數(shù)據(jù)同化算法EnKF-3DVar與CA/Markov模型集成,將海淀區(qū)的多年平均臭氧濃度空間分布數(shù)據(jù)同化進(jìn)行城市地表溫度的模擬預(yù)測(cè)。結(jié)果表明海淀區(qū)的城市地表溫度10年間呈現(xiàn)先下降后上升的趨勢(shì),但總體呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢(shì),其中2015年的平均溫度為31.1393℃。引入EnKF-3DVar的預(yù)測(cè)模型能夠顯著提升模型的模擬精度,所預(yù)測(cè)的2015年的數(shù)據(jù)結(jié)果Kappa系數(shù)達(dá)到0.8216。在有城市公園綠地的模式下,地表溫度高值區(qū)呈現(xiàn)緩解趨勢(shì),在無城市綠地公園的模式下,城市地表溫度高值區(qū)呈現(xiàn)出明顯的擴(kuò)張趨勢(shì),最高溫度達(dá)到了56.1423℃,城市生態(tài)綠地對(duì)于城市地表溫度的空間分布影響巨大,合理布局城市綠地公園意義重大。

    Abstract:

    Based on the remote sensing image data of 2005, 2010 and 2015, the spatial distribution of urban land surface temperature was studied by using the IB algorithm in the study area of Haidian District, Beijing. The data assimilation algorithm EnKF-3DVar and CA/Markov model integration were used to simulate the urban surface temperature in Haidian District by assimilating the spatial distribution data of the annual mean ozone concentration. The results showed that the urban surface temperature in Haidian District showed a downward trend in the past 10 years, and then showed a rising trend. But its overall showed a downward trend. The average temperature in 2015 was 31.1393℃. The prediction model of EnKF-3DVar can significantly improve the simulation precision of the model, and the Kappa coefficient of the predicted data in 2015 was 0.8216. Under the model of urban park green space, the urban surface temperature showed a decreasing trend. In the absence of urban green space park, urban surface temperature had a clear trend of expansion. The maximum temperature reached 56.1423℃, and the urban ecological green space had a great influence on the spatial distribution of urban surface temperature. Rational layout of urban green space was of great significance. The urban green space had a very large effect on the land surface temperature. In the process of urban green space construction, the construction of the green space network should be strengthened, and in the area of high land surface temperature in Haidian District, a large green plate should be built. The research result can provide technical support for the current and future urban green space planning and regional surface temperature mitigation.

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張?jiān)?于強(qiáng),李夢(mèng)瑩,黃元,岳攀,王計(jì)平.基于EnKF-3DVar模型的海淀區(qū)地表溫度模擬[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械學(xué)報(bào),2017,48(9):166-172. ZHANG Yun, YU Qiang, LI Mengying, HUANG Yuan, YUE Pan, WANG Jiping. Simulation of Land Surface Temperature in Haidian District Based on EnKF-3DVar Model[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2017,48(9):166-172.

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  • 收稿日期:2017-07-04
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2017-09-10
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