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基于元胞自動(dòng)機(jī)模型的土地利用情景模擬與驅(qū)動(dòng)力分析
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國土資源部公益性行業(yè)科研專項(xiàng)(20131100201)


Driving Force Analysis and Scenarios Simulation of Land Use Based on Cell Automata Model
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    摘要:

    土地利用格局的形成過程比其最終形成的結(jié)果更為重要。本文以哈爾濱市雙城區(qū)為例,利用不同時(shí)期的土地利用數(shù)據(jù),在土地利用變化關(guān)鍵驅(qū)動(dòng)因素分析的基礎(chǔ)上,選取了對(duì)土地利用變化影響較大的距離變量、鄰近土地利用類型數(shù)量、單元自然屬性、社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)因素等4方面14個(gè)驅(qū)動(dòng)力因子,建立了基于元胞自動(dòng)機(jī)(CA)與人工神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)(ANN)相結(jié)合的土地利用空間格局模擬模型。在此基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)研究區(qū)自然稟賦、社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)快速發(fā)展、基本農(nóng)田保護(hù)及土地利用規(guī)劃等不同情景驅(qū)動(dòng)機(jī)制下的土地利用空間格局進(jìn)行了時(shí)空模擬,以此解析土地利用變化過程與驅(qū)動(dòng)力因素的響應(yīng)關(guān)系。模擬結(jié)果顯示:自然稟賦情景下,各地類變化趨勢(shì)與現(xiàn)在保持一致;在社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)快速發(fā)展情景下,建設(shè)用地面積增加明顯,主要由旱地和其他用地轉(zhuǎn)入;在基本農(nóng)田保護(hù)情景下,耕地面積比較穩(wěn)定,各地類變化趨勢(shì)較為緩和;在土地利用規(guī)劃情景下,各地類變化較為合理,兼顧耕地保護(hù)和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展。研究結(jié)果顯示,該方法對(duì)哈爾濱市雙城區(qū)土地利用格局變化的驅(qū)動(dòng)機(jī)制具有較好的解釋作用。

    Abstract:

    Simulation of land use spatial pattern can reveal the geological regularity and identify the driving factors of regional land use change from multi-scales, which is an important way to clarify land use changes process and pattern for the future period. This paper took Shuangcheng District in Harbin City as a case and developed a simulation model based on Cellular automata (CA) combined with Artificial neural network (ANN). Totally 14 driving force factors were selected from four aspects which had significant impact on land use change, including the distance variables, number of adjacent land use type, unit natural attribute and socio-economic factors. They were used in the ANN-CA model to simulate land use change of Shuangcheng District from 2002 to 2013. The accuracy of simulation was verified by using the actual interpretation data in 2013 and it was 85.26%, which showed the model could be used to simulate the LUCC of Shuangcheng District. Furthermore, the land use pattern in 2024 was simulated under four scenarios: natural endowment scenario, rapid economic development scenario, basic farmland protection scenario and land use planning scenario. The results showed that land use pattern presented obvious spatial diversity under different scenarios, different driving factors resulted in diverse changes of various land-use types, and socio-economic factors played an important role in the conversion of land use types. The study outcomes could provide scientific decision support for the sustainable utilization of land resources in Shuangcheng District.

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孫瑋健,張榮群,艾東,王大海.基于元胞自動(dòng)機(jī)模型的土地利用情景模擬與驅(qū)動(dòng)力分析[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械學(xué)報(bào),2017,48(s1):254-261. SUN Weijian, ZHANG Rongqun, AI Dong, WANG Dahai. Driving Force Analysis and Scenarios Simulation of Land Use Based on Cell Automata Model[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2017,48(s1):254-261.

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  • 收稿日期:2017-07-10
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2017-12-10
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