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基于MCR-FLUS-Markov模型的區(qū)域國土空間格局優(yōu)化
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國家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(41761081)和昆明理工大學(xué)引進(jìn)人才科研啟動(dòng)基金項(xiàng)目(KKZ3202021055)


Optimization of Regional Territory Space Pattern Based on MCR-FLUS-Markov Model
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    摘要:

    以滇中城市群為例,將GIS技術(shù)和MCR-FLUS-Markov模型應(yīng)用于國土空間格局優(yōu)化配置研究中,提出一種基于生態(tài)安全格局的國土空間格局優(yōu)化配置方法,在生活空間擴(kuò)張情景、生產(chǎn)空間開發(fā)情景、生態(tài)空間保護(hù)情景和綜合優(yōu)化情景4種模式下,對2030年國土空間結(jié)構(gòu)布局情況進(jìn)行預(yù)測,最終形成“生活-生產(chǎn)-生態(tài)空間”協(xié)調(diào)下的滇中城市群國土空間格局優(yōu)化分區(qū)。結(jié)果表明:以生態(tài)保護(hù)紅線作為生態(tài)源地,以城鎮(zhèn)用地和農(nóng)村居民點(diǎn)用地作為生活空間擴(kuò)張?jiān)?,選取9個(gè)阻力因子,采用MCR模型和累積耗費(fèi)距離模型構(gòu)建城市群生態(tài)安全格局,形成生態(tài)空間保護(hù)核心區(qū)、生態(tài)空間保護(hù)邊緣區(qū)、生產(chǎn)空間開發(fā)重點(diǎn)區(qū)、生產(chǎn)空間開發(fā)邊緣區(qū)和生活空間擴(kuò)張集中區(qū)5個(gè)生態(tài)安全格局功能分區(qū);以生態(tài)功能分區(qū)作為約束條件,通過MCR-FLUS-Markov模型模擬得到滇中城市群2030年3種情景下“生活-生產(chǎn)-生態(tài)空間”優(yōu)化配置結(jié)果。生活空間擴(kuò)張情景考慮了生活需要及政策指導(dǎo)下以生活空間擴(kuò)張建設(shè)為主導(dǎo)的三生空間數(shù)量及結(jié)構(gòu)的發(fā)展方向;在生產(chǎn)空間開發(fā)情景下,生活空間擴(kuò)張規(guī)模得到一定控制,開發(fā)了部分生態(tài)空間潛力;在生態(tài)空間保護(hù)情景下,生產(chǎn)空間面積少量減小,生活空間面積少量增加。根據(jù)國土空間的主導(dǎo)功能及多功能性,滇中城市群2030年綜合情景方案下的“生活-生產(chǎn)-生態(tài)空間”優(yōu)化布局劃分為生活空間、生產(chǎn)空間、生態(tài)空間、生活-生產(chǎn)空間、生活-生態(tài)空間、生產(chǎn)-生態(tài)空間和生活-生產(chǎn)-生態(tài)空間7大類,以生產(chǎn)-生態(tài)空間面積最小,生態(tài)空間面積最大,并結(jié)合城市群各縣域發(fā)展特點(diǎn)提出了各空間類型的生活、生產(chǎn)開發(fā)建設(shè)和生態(tài)保護(hù)的重點(diǎn)及方向。研究認(rèn)為,基于“生活-生產(chǎn)-生態(tài)空間”協(xié)調(diào)的綜合情景方案更為合理,其他3種情景方案可為綜合情景方案的實(shí)施進(jìn)行補(bǔ)充和調(diào)整。

    Abstract:

    Through GIS technology, using the MCR-FLUS-Markov model, and the urban agglomeration in central Yunnan was taken as an example investigation of the optimized allocation of a territory spatial pattern to put forward a method of optimization of territory spatial patterns based on an ecological security patterns. The layout of the territory spatial pattern in 2030 was studied under the following four modes: the expansion of the living space, development of the production space, protection of ecological space and comprehensive optimization scenario, and finally an optimization of the territorial spatial pattern of the study area was formed as coordinated living-production-ecological space. The results revealed that: using the MCR and the cumulative cost distance model to construct the ecological security pattern of urban agglomeration, five functional zones of ecological security patterns were formed, which were as follows: the core area of ecological space protection, edge area of ecological space protection, key area of production space development, edge area of production space development and concentration area of living space expansion. Coupled with MCR-FLUS-Markov model, optimal allocation results for living-production-ecological space were obtained for four scenarios in 2030, and the focus of the various scenario simulations set by the research were different. According to their dominant functions and multi-functional natures of the territory space, the optimized layout of the living-production-ecological space under the comprehensive scenario plan for the urban agglomeration in central Yunnan in 2030 were divided into living, production, ecological, living-production, living-ecological, production-ecological, living-production-ecological spaces, with the area of the production-ecological and ecological space as the smallest and largest, respectively. It was believed that a comprehensive scenario plan based on the coordination of the living-production-ecological space would be more reasonable, and the other three scenarios can be used to supplement and adjust the implementation of the fundamental, comprehensive scenario plan.

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林伊琳,趙俊三,陳國平,張萌.基于MCR-FLUS-Markov模型的區(qū)域國土空間格局優(yōu)化[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械學(xué)報(bào),2021,52(4):159-170,207. LIN Yilin, ZHAO Junsan, CHEN Guoping, ZHANG Meng. Optimization of Regional Territory Space Pattern Based on MCR-FLUS-Markov Model[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2021,52(4):159-170,207.

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  • 收稿日期:2020-11-12
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2021-04-10
  • 出版日期: 2021-04-10