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基于SPI和云模型的海河平原區(qū)干旱特征研究
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國家重點研發(fā)計劃項目(2017YFC0405805-03)和國家自然科學基金項目(51609137)


Drought Characteristics of Haihe Plain Based on SPI and Cloud Model
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    摘要:

    根據(jù)海河平原20個氣象站1955—2019年逐日降水量計算了年尺度和季尺度的標準化降水指數(shù)(SPI),對各尺度不同等級的干旱頻率及其時空特征進行分析;以年尺度SPI為樣本,采用正態(tài)云發(fā)生器算法和多步還原逆向云變換算法構(gòu)建云模型,分析了干旱的隨機性和穩(wěn)定性。結(jié)果表明,海河平原區(qū)干旱頻率主要分布區(qū)間為[0.28,0.31],呈現(xiàn)輕旱高頻、重旱低頻的特點;春旱發(fā)生頻率最高,冬旱頻率最小,夏季地區(qū)間及年際間差異最大。年際間SPI云模型的3個特征參數(shù)均呈減小趨勢,其中熵呈顯著減小趨勢,且超熵與熵呈顯著正相關,即SPI分布的隨機性和不均勻性變化趨勢一致;空間上各站點超熵和熵則呈極顯著負相關,隨機性和不均勻性呈相反趨勢;云特征的年際差異大于站點間差異,即云模型能夠更好地反映區(qū)域年際間SPI在空間上的隨機性和穩(wěn)定性。海河平原整體上有趨于干旱的趨勢,各站點SPI的隨機性顯著減小,且變化趨于穩(wěn)定。

    Abstract:

    According to the daily precipitation of 20 meteorological stations in Haihe Plain from 1955 to 2019, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) on annual scale and seasonal scale was calculated, and the drought frequency and spatial and temporal characteristics of different levels on each scale were analyzed. Taking annual scale SPI as the sample, the normal cloud generator algorithm and the multi-step restoring reverse cloud transformation algorithm were used to construct the cloud model to analyze the randomness and stability of drought. The results showed that the drought frequency in Haihe Plain was mainly between 0.28 and 0.31, with the characteristics of high frequency of light drought and low frequency of heavy drought. The frequency of spring drought was the highest and winter drought was the lowest. The differences between regions and between years were the greatest in summer. The three characteristic parameters of the interannual SPI cloud model were all showed decreasing trends, in which the entropy significantly was decreased and the superentropy was significantly and positively correlated with the entropy, that was, the randomness and inhomogeneity of the SPI distribution showed a consistent trend. In space, the superentropy and entropy of each station showed a very significant negative correlation, the randomness and inhomogeneity showed an opposite trend. The inter-annual differences of cloud characteristics were greater than the inter-site differences, that was, the cloud model can better reflect the randomness and stability of regional inter-annual SPI in space. Haihe Plain tended to be drier in general, and the randomness of SPI of each station was decreased significantly and tended to be stable and uniform.

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張旭東,石瑞強,吳迪,付玉娟,石超強,孫仕軍.基于SPI和云模型的海河平原區(qū)干旱特征研究[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機械學報,2021,52(7):313-321. ZHANG Xudong, SHI Ruiqiang, WU Di, FU Yujuan, SHI Chaoqiang, SUN Shijun. Drought Characteristics of Haihe Plain Based on SPI and Cloud Model[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2021,52(7):313-321.

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  • 收稿日期:2020-09-08
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2021-07-10
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