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基于LAI和VTCI及Copula函數(shù)的冬小麥單產(chǎn)估測
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Winter Wheat Yield Estimation Based on Copula Function and Remotely Sensed LAI and VTCI
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    摘要:

    受全球變暖影響,近年來干旱事件發(fā)生的頻率和強(qiáng)度均呈顯著增加的趨勢,嚴(yán)重影響了農(nóng)作物的產(chǎn)量。因此,選擇合適的監(jiān)測指標(biāo)、構(gòu)建準(zhǔn)確的產(chǎn)量估測模型,對保障國家糧食安全具有十分重要的意義。以關(guān)中平原為研究區(qū)域,基于與作物長勢密切相關(guān)的條件植被溫度指數(shù)(VTCI)和葉面積指數(shù)(LAI),采用主成分分析法(PCA)結(jié)合Copula函數(shù)分別構(gòu)建縣域尺度單變量(VTCI或LAI)、雙變量(VTCI和LAI)的冬小麥單產(chǎn)估測模型。結(jié)果表明,基于PCA-Copula構(gòu)建的綜合LAI與冬小麥的單產(chǎn)模型精度最高(R2=0.567,P<0.001),但綜合VTCI和LAI與冬小麥間的單產(chǎn)模型(R2=0.524,P<0.001)用于研究區(qū)域2012—2017年各縣(區(qū))的冬小麥單產(chǎn)估測時(shí)誤差分布更為集中、最大誤差更小,比基于綜合VTCI、綜合LAI建立的估產(chǎn)模型的估測結(jié)果更可靠,表明應(yīng)用PCA-Copula構(gòu)建的雙變量估產(chǎn)模型更適合大范圍的冬小麥單產(chǎn)估測。

    Abstract:

    Affected by the global warming, the frequency and intensity of drought events have shown a significant increase in recent years, which has seriously affected crop yields. Therefore, selecting appropriate monitoring indicators and constructing accurate yield estimation models are of great significance to ensure the country’s food security. The Guanzhong Plain in Shaanxi Province was chosen as the study area, and remotely sensed vegetation temperature condition index (VTCI) and leaf area index (LAI) which are closely related to crop growth were selected as the growth monitoring indicators. The principal component analysis (PCA) combined with Copula function were used to construct univariate (VTCI or LAI) and bivariate (VTCI and LAI) winter wheat yield estimation models at the county scale. The results showed that the liner regression model of comprehensive values of LAI and winter wheat yield constructed based on PCA-Copula had the highest accuracy (R2=0.567, P<0.001). However, when the liner regression model of comprehensive values of VTCI and LAI and winter wheat yield (R2=0.524, P<0.001) was used to estimate the yield of winter wheat in each county (district) in the study area from 2012 to 2017, the distribution of the error between the estimated yield and the actual yield was more concentrated, and the maximum error value was also smaller, which was more reliable than the results of the winter wheat yield estimation model based on a single variable. These results indicated that the bivariate yield estimation model constructed by PCA-Copula was more suitable for largescale winter wheat yield estimation.

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王鵬新,陳弛,張樹譽(yù),張悅,李紅梅.基于LAI和VTCI及Copula函數(shù)的冬小麥單產(chǎn)估測[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械學(xué)報(bào),2021,52(10):255-263. WANG Pengxin, CHEN Chi, ZHANG Shuyu, ZHANG Yue, LI Hongmei. Winter Wheat Yield Estimation Based on Copula Function and Remotely Sensed LAI and VTCI[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2021,52(10):255-263.

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  • 收稿日期:2020-09-23
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2020-11-10
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