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基于五元半偏減法集對勢的區(qū)域農業(yè)旱災脆弱性評價
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國家重點研發(fā)計劃項目(2017YFC1502405)、國家自然科學基金項目(52109009、51579060)、安徽省自然科學基金項目(2108085QE254、2008085ME158)和中央高?;究蒲袠I(yè)務費專項資金項目(JZ2020HGQA0202)


Assessment of Regional Agricultural Drought Vulnerability Based on Five-element Semipartial Subtraction Set Pair Potential
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    摘要:

    農業(yè)旱災脆弱性動態(tài)評價對保障區(qū)域農業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展具有重要意義。為分析農業(yè)旱災脆弱性評價子系統(tǒng)及指標的發(fā)展趨勢,識別影響區(qū)域農業(yè)旱災脆弱性變化的主要因素,提出了一種聯(lián)系數(shù)伴隨函數(shù)——五元半偏減法集對勢,據(jù)此建立了區(qū)域農業(yè)旱災脆弱性動態(tài)評價方法,在蚌埠市應用結果表明:蚌埠市農業(yè)旱災脆弱性評價系統(tǒng)中的暴露子系統(tǒng)2001—2010年總體由均勢轉向偏反勢,向著集對勢降低的方向發(fā)展,農業(yè)旱災脆弱性呈增強趨勢,其中,對蚌埠市農業(yè)旱災脆弱性變化影響較大的指標為復種指數(shù),且復種指數(shù)存在向反勢發(fā)展的趨勢;災損敏感性子系統(tǒng)發(fā)展趨勢波動較大,2001—2010年逐漸由偏反勢發(fā)展到偏同勢,評估結果呈現(xiàn)逐年向好趨勢,其中,單位農業(yè)增加值耗水量的減少使得蚌埠市農業(yè)旱災脆弱性有較為明顯的改善;防災減災能力子系統(tǒng)在2001—2009年處于偏反勢,2009年之后逐漸穩(wěn)定為均勢,脆弱性狀況呈緩慢改善趨勢,其中,影響脆弱性的主要指標有節(jié)水灌溉率、農民人均GDP。本研究可為改善區(qū)域農業(yè)旱災脆弱性狀況提供科學的決策依據(jù),也可為解決復雜系統(tǒng)多等級問題提供新的有效途徑。

    Abstract:

    The agricultural drought vulnerability dynamic assessment is of great significance for the sustainable development of regional agriculture. In order to analyze the development trend of agricultural drought vulnerability evaluation subsystem and indexes, and identify the main indexes that affect the change of regional agricultural drought vulnerability, an adjoint function of connection number, which was the five-element semipartial subtraction set pair potential was constructed. Then, a dynamic evaluation model of regional agricultural drought vulnerability was established, application results of Bengbu City showed that, in the agricultural drought vulnerability evaluation system of Bengbu City, the overall trend of exposure subsystem from 2001 to 2010 was fluctuated between the symmetrical potential and the partial inverse potential, and it was developed towards the reduction of set pair potential. The agricultural drought vulnerability showed an increasing trend, the main index that had a great impact on the vulnerability in Bengbu City was multiple cropping, and it displayed a trend to the inverse potential. Furthermore, the development of damage sensitivity subsystem was fluctuated greatly, from 2001 to 2010, it was gradually developed from the partial inverse potential to the partial identical potential, and the evaluation results showed a positive trend. The decrease of unit added value for agricultural water consumption made an obvious improvement of agricultural drought vulnerability in Bengbu City. Moreover, in 2001—2009, the disaster prevention ability subsystem was in the partial inverse potential. After 2009, it was gradually changed to the symmetrical potential. Meanwhile, the vulnerability showed a slow improvement trend, and the primary influence factors were water-saving irrigation rate and per capita income of farmers. The research provided a scientific decision basis for improving the regional agricultural drought disasters vulnerability, and also provided an effective way to deal with the multi-level problems of complex systems.

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金菊良,孔令茹,崔毅,周戎星,陳夢璐,寧少尉.基于五元半偏減法集對勢的區(qū)域農業(yè)旱災脆弱性評價[J].農業(yè)機械學報,2022,53(1):340-348. JIN Juliang, KONG Lingru, CUI Yi, ZHOU Rongxing, CHEN Menglu, NING Shaowei. Assessment of Regional Agricultural Drought Vulnerability Based on Five-element Semipartial Subtraction Set Pair Potential[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2022,53(1):340-348.

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  • 收稿日期:2020-12-30
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2022-01-10
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