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氣候與種植結(jié)構(gòu)變化對溫室氣體排放及灌溉需水的影響
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國家自然科學(xué)基金項目(51979230、52109065)和中國博士后科學(xué)基金項目(2022M712605)


Effects of Climate and Plantation Structure Changes on Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Irrigation Water Demand
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    摘要:

    針對氣候變化和種植結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整對黃淮海地區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)作用不明晰的問題,基于反硝化分解模型(Denitrification-decomposition,DNDC),采用情景分析法評估了氣候與種植結(jié)構(gòu)變化對黃淮海地區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)溫室氣體(CO2、CH4和N2O)排放和灌溉需水量的影響。結(jié)果表明:從1995年到2015年,研究區(qū)氣候向暖濕化方向發(fā)展,其中年均最高溫度無顯著變化,年均最低溫度上升0.7℃,年降水量增長46.5mm;1995年研究區(qū)玉米、小麥和水稻種植面積分別約為7.9×106、1.4×107、2.9×106hm2;2015年3種作物種植面積均增大,而水稻、小麥種植比例減小。氣候變化影響下,黃淮海地區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)溫室氣體排放增加,灌溉需水量小幅減小。與1995年相比,2015年CO2、CH4、N2O排放強度分別增長至3730.5、443.2、5.9kg/hm2,增幅分別為4.7%、0.8%、26.2%,灌溉需水量減小為499.3mm,減幅為6.6%。種植結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整改變溫室氣體排放和灌溉需水量,黃淮海地區(qū)種植結(jié)構(gòu)演變使CO2、CH4、N2O排放總量增加至9.9×107、1.4×106、1.3×105t,分別增加13.8%、8.6%、13.3%,同時,玉米作為高耗水作物,部分地區(qū)灌溉需水量隨其種植比例的增大而增大。研究結(jié)果可為黃淮海地區(qū)未來農(nóng)業(yè)節(jié)水減排政策的制定提供理論依據(jù)。

    Abstract:

    Aiming at the unclear effect of climate change and planting structure adjustment on agricultural production in Huang-Huai-Hai region, based on denitrification decomposition model (DNDC), the effect of climate and planting structure change on agricultural greenhouse gas (CO2, CH4 and N2O) emission and irrigation water demand in the Huang-Huai-Hai area was assessed by scenario analysis. The results showed that from 1995 to 2015, the climate in the study area developed towards the direction of warm and humid, in which the average annual maximum temperature did not change significantly, the average annual minimum temperature increased by 0.7℃, and the annual precipitation increased by 46.5mm.In 1995, the planting area of maize, wheat and rice was about 7.9×106 hm2, 1.4×107hm2 and 2.9×106hm2, respectively. In 2015, the planting area of three crops was increased, while the planting proportion of rice and wheat was decreased. Under the influence of climate change, agricultural greenhouse gas emissions were increased and irrigation water demand was decreased slightly in the Huang-Huai-Hai region. Compared with that in 1995, the emission intensity of CO2, CH4 and N2O was increased by 4.7%, 0.8% and 26.2% respectively to 3730.5kg/hm2, 443.2kg/hm2 and 5.9kg/hm2 in 2015, and the irrigation water demand was decreased to 499.3mm with decrease of 6.6%. The adjustment of planting structure changed greenhouse gas emissions and irrigation water demand. The evolution of planting structure in the Huang-Huai-Hai region increased the total emissions of CO2, CH4 and N 2.O to 9.9×107t, 1.4×106t and 1.3×105t, which was increased by 13.8%, 8.6% and 13.3%, respectively. Meanwhile, in some areas, the irrigation water demand was increased with the increase of corn planting proportion as a high waterconsuming crop. The research results can provide theoretical basis for the formulation of future agricultural water saving and emission reduction policies in the Huang-Huai-Hai region.

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欒曉波,高子涵,薛靜,孫世坤,唐一荷,高飛.氣候與種植結(jié)構(gòu)變化對溫室氣體排放及灌溉需水的影響[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機械學(xué)報,2023,54(12):327-337. LUAN Xiaobo, GAO Zihan, XUE Jing, SUN Shikun, TANG Yihe, GAO Fei. Effects of Climate and Plantation Structure Changes on Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Irrigation Water Demand[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2023,54(12):327-337.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-05-11
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