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基于WMAIP集成模型的華北冬小麥適宜播期與冬前積溫下限研究
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農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部黃淮海智慧農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室開放基金項(xiàng)目(202302)和國家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(41805090)


Suitable Sowing Date and Minimum Pre-winter Accumulated Temperature for Winter Wheat in North China Plain Based on WMAIP Integrated Model
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    摘要:

    為明確氣候變暖和“雙晚技術(shù)”背景下華北地區(qū)冬小麥的適宜播期,基于WMAIP集成模型,對(duì)華北地區(qū)冬小麥適宜播期、冬前積溫下限及最遲播期進(jìn)行了分析。研究結(jié)果表明,華北地區(qū)晚播減產(chǎn)幅度由南向北增大,南部晚播減產(chǎn)幅度最?。?19.5%),中部晚播減產(chǎn)幅度在26.4%以內(nèi),北部晚播減產(chǎn)幅度最大,最高可達(dá)32.0%。華北地區(qū)北部、中部和南部的適宜播期分別在9月25日—10月5日之間、9月30日—10月20日之間和10月10日—11月5日之間。華北地區(qū)冬小麥基于高產(chǎn)和高水分利用效率的適宜冬前積溫下限分別在497~629℃·d和 344~581℃·d之間,并由南部向北部遞增。在高產(chǎn)和高水分利用效率條件下,河北、山東、河南大部分地區(qū)的最遲播期分別為10月1—13日、10月10—16日、10月22—28日和10月7—19日、10月16—22日、10月31日—11月12日。研究結(jié)果可為氣候變暖背景下華北地區(qū)“雙晚技術(shù)”的推廣和應(yīng)用提供參考。

    Abstract:

    Global warming has direct impacts on agricultural production and food security. The North China Plain (NCP) has adopted the double later-cropping system (the later sowing of winter wheat and the later harvest of summer maize) as a strategy to cope with climate change and increase yield. Determining the latest sowing period for winter wheat in this region under the backdrop of climate change is crucial for ensuring high yield and efficiency, thereby safeguarding China’s food security. Based on the WMAIP integrated model, the suitable sowing period and the minimum pre-winter accumulated temperature were analyzed for winter wheat at six representative sites in NCP, including Beijing and Tianjin in the north, Xingtai and Ji’nan in the middle, and Xihua and Nanyang in the south. The results showed that the yield reduction rate due to late sowing was increased from south to north in NCP, with the southernmost part of NCP having the smallest reduction rate (<19.5%), the central part having a reduction rate within 26.4%, and the northernmost part having the largest reduction rate, reaching up to 32.0%. The suitable sowing periods for the northern, central, and southern parts of NCP were between September 25 and October 5, September 30 and October 20, and October 10 and November 5, respectively. All sites showed a very significant quadratic relationship between the high stability coefficient and the pre-winter accumulated temperature. Based on this quadratic relationship, the lower limit of suitable pre-winter accumulated temperature can be determined. The suitable pre-winter accumulated temperature for winter wheat varied at different sites, showing a gradually decreasing trend from north to south in NCP. The suitable pre-winter accumulated temperature limits for winter wheat in NCP, based on high yield and high water use efficiency, were between 497℃·d and 629℃·d and 344℃d and 581℃·d, increasing from south to north. Under conditions of high yield, the latest sowing dates for the majority of regions in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan were between October 1 and October 13, October 10 and October 16, October 22 and October 28, respectively, and under high water use efficiency conditions, they were extended to October 7 and October 19, October 16 and October 22, and October 31 and November 12. The insights can provide a reference for the promotion and application of the double later-cropping system in NCP under the context of global warming.

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陳先冠,馮利平,白慧卿,孫爽,李國強(qiáng),程陳,江敏,李穎,趙錦.基于WMAIP集成模型的華北冬小麥適宜播期與冬前積溫下限研究[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械學(xué)報(bào),2024,55(2):315-325. CHEN Xianguan, FENG Liping, BAI Huiqing, SUN Shuang, LI Guoqiang, CHENG Chen, JIANG Min, LI Ying, ZHAO Jin. Suitable Sowing Date and Minimum Pre-winter Accumulated Temperature for Winter Wheat in North China Plain Based on WMAIP Integrated Model[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2024,55(2):315-325.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-11-06
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2024-02-10
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